Beyond the Hype: An Analyst's Guide to Calculating TAM, SAM, and SOM

TAM, SAM, SOM seem confusing? This guide gives a down-to-earth look at ways to size your market without losing your mind. Find real data sources and understand what those numbers actually mean for your strategy.

TAM, SAM, SOM: Concentric circles showing Total Addressable, Serviceable Available, and Serviceable Obtainable Markets.

TAM, SAM, SOM.

Everyone talks about them, and just as many probably hate them.

In this guide, I’ll shed some light on this frustrating yet crucial topic.

As a market analyst, I’ve calculated TAM, SAM, SOM incorrectly more times than I’d like to admit, but I’ve learned a lot along the way. Let me share those learnings with you.

We'll go over definitions, approaches, formulas, where to find data, and how to not completely lose your mind in the process.

Let's dive in.

TL;DR

TAM (Total Addressable Market) 

Vision

The entire market for the problem your product/service solves, globally or across all possible segments. TAM represents the total market value achieved if every potential customer bought a solution like yours.

TAM_customers = Total Number of Potential Customers

TAM_revenue = Total Number of Potential Customers × ARPC*

* Average Revenue Per Customer. It should fit your business model, for example: B2C SaaS → ARPU (Average Revenue per User), B2B SaaS → ACV (Annual Contract Value), E-commerce → AOV (Average Order Value).

Why it matters: 

  • Shows the theoretical maximum scale of the opportunity.
  • Good for long-term vision and impressing investors. 

SAM (Serviceable Available Market) 

Strategy

The piece of the TAM pie that realistically matches your business model, product capabilities, target geography, and other limitations or constraints.

SAM = TAM × Segmentation Coefficient* × Market Accessibility Coefficient**

* Percentage of potential customers in the total TAM for whom your product is a great fit.

** Percentage of that segment that you could actually reach, considering geography, regulatory restrictions, and other barriers.

Why it matters: 

  • Filters the whole market down to your relevant market segment.
  • Defines where you can compete.
  • Guides product-market fit and strategic focus. 

SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market) 

Execution

The actual slice of SAM you can realistically capture in the near term given your current resources, competition,  sales channels, marketing efforts, and operational capabilities. Think of it as your achievable market share.

SOM = SAM × Market Share Coefficient*

* Percentage of the market you expect to capture, based on your marketing and sales strategy, budget, and other factors.

Why it matters: 

  • This is your actionable target.
  • It sets realistic sales goals, informs resource allocation, and measures early traction.

You can think of it this way: TAM is for impressing investors (and boosting your ego), SAM is for strategic planning, and SOM is for execution and reality checks.

Diagram showing Total Addressable Market (TAM) filtered to Serviceable Available (SAM) and Obtainable (SOM) markets.

Keep in mind:

  • There's no single right way to calculate these.
  • TAM, SAM, and SOM can be measured in the number of customers or the revenue from those customers.
  • Customer count is useful for understanding the sheer size of your target audience.
  • Revenue is vital for assessing market potential and ROI.

TAM: Total Addressable Market

TAM is an aspirational dream.

It's what you could achieve if you were a monopoly with 100% adoption.

No limits, no competition: just you, the market, and groundbreaking success.

So, how do you approach it?

There are two ways: counting potential customers or estimating potential revenue. Unsurprisingly, the revenue estimation method is preferable.

TAM as Customer Count

TAM_customers = Total Number of Potential Customers

But without considering willingness-to-pay and average deal size, this number alone isn't very helpful.

TAM as Revenue

TAM_revenue = Total Number of Potential Customers × ARPC

ARPC (Average Revenue Per Customer) should fit your business model.

For example:

  • B2C SaaS → ARPU (Average Revenue per User)
  • B2B SaaS → ACV (Annual Contract Value)
  • E-commerce → AOV (Average Order Value)

As you can see, TAM is a theoretical figure. It doesn’t account for the messy realities of competition, demand distribution, your own limitations, or regulatory constraints, among other factors.

What’s worse, this theoretical estimate can quickly drift into pure fantasy.

And that brings us to the so-called inflated TAM.

Inflated TAM

'My product is for humans, there are 8 billion people on Earth, so that’s my TAM.' - Some overly aspirational founder.

As exaggerated as it sounds, this is a common way to inflate TAM.

Industry-Wide Assessment

Let's say you're selling VPNs.

You come across a Deloitte article stating, 'The global market for security products is growing rapidly and is expected to reach US$200 billion by 2028, reflecting its critical role in securing digital initiatives.'

So, you decide your TAM = $200 billion.

I hope this assumption raised a lot of questions in your head.

It overlooks critical factors, starting with product focus. The security market covers a wide range of products (antivirus, firewalls, etc.), not just VPNs.

All-Users Assessment

Imagine you're developing an app.

Statista says, 'The number of smartphone mobile network subscriptions worldwide reached almost seven billion in 2023, and is forecast to exceed 7.7 billion by 2028.' You plan to sell your app for $1, so you estimate your TAM as 7.7 × $1 = $7.7 billion.

Unless your app is absolutely essential to every single smartphone owner on the planet, this estimate is wildly unrealistic.

On the other hand, The Startup Owner's Manual by Steve Blank and Bob Dorf suggests you shouldn't limit TAM at all, arguing that the TAM for a mobile app could include all smartphone owners worldwide.

Optimism vs. Realism

➕ Some might say the bigger the TAM, the easier it is to impress investors. Plus, it's good to be optimistic, right?

➖ Others might argue that this shows unrealistic expectations and a weak understanding of your true target audience.

Realistic TAM

It's hard to say what a realistic TAM is because it depends on your product and market. But here are some things to think about.

Focus on Your Product and Target Audience

Let’s continue with the VPN example.

If you’re developing a VPN for personal use (B2C) rather than businesses, it makes sense to focus on data specific to the consumer segment.

For instance, Verified Market Research states: 'The consumer VPN market was valued at USD 51.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 73.8 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 4.7% from 2024 to 2031.'

This is already a more realistic estimate than using the $200 billion figure for the entire security market, as it accounts for the specific consumer VPN segment. Of course, without fully understanding Verified Market Research’s methodology, it's impossible to say whether this estimate is inflated or underestimated.

Look at Industry Numbers

Look at real numbers from your industry (or adjacent ones).

For example, if you’re evaluating the potential of a new mobile app, research the most popular ones. TikTok, for instance, has 1.12 billion monthly active users. This number can serve as a benchmark for understanding the adoption scale in the mobile app industry.

Of course, you might believe your app will be the best and most popular, but data shows the actual volumes you’ll be (optimistically) dealing with. This helps you set more realistic expectations and ambitions.

You might argue that you’ll create a whole new industry, one where no benchmark fits, and that you’ll set the trends and define the numbers.

But consider this: OpenAI reached 400 million weekly active users as of March 2025. ChatGPT was released in November 2022, so in less than 3 years. What are the odds that you’ll be far more popular than them? (Unless you have limitless funding and a god-like plan, but in that case, you probably wouldn’t be reading this article by yours truly😉)

So yes, I'm a big proponent of seeking out benchmarks and realistically assessing your assumptions.

Nothing beats a benchmark built from your own historical data, but if you're just getting started, industry averages can offer a helpful starting point.

Balancing Ambition with Reality

➕ Limiting TAM early reduces the risk of overly optimistic expectations, making your estimate more reliable.

➖ On the other hand, limiting TAM may underestimate your potential. If your product or business model proves revolutionary and drives rapid growth, limits based on current data may not capture future expansion.

The key is to have a logical rationale for your TAM estimate.

If you can reasonably explain why everyone on the planet will buy your product – awesome!  Just make sure it makes sense.

SAM: Part of the TAM You Can Target

If TAM is the whole market, assuming total monopoly and 100% adoption among your target audience, then SAM (Serviceable Available Market) is the portion of TAM that you can realistically reach, factoring in market constraints and your capabilities.

Think of it like this: if you're a fisherman, your TAM is the entire ocean and all the fish in it. Your SAM is the part of the ocean you can realistically reach, given your licenses, fishing regulations, and the size of your boat.

In business terms, your TAM might be $10 billion, but your SAM is only $1 billion because:

  • Your product is only available in specific regions.
  • It’s designed for a limited customer segment.
  • It doesn’t meet all regulatory requirements.

For example:

  • If your product isn’t HIPAA-compliant, you can’t enter the U.S. healthcare market.
  • Without a Spanish localization, your reach to Spanish-speaking audiences will be limited.
  • If your product costs $10,000 but targets small businesses, your SAM may shrink because many simply can’t afford it.

As with TAM, there are two ways to calculate SAM: counting potential customers or estimating potential revenue.

SAM as Customer Count

SAM_customers = TAM_customers × Segmentation Coefficient × Market Accessibility Coefficient

Where:

  • Segmentation Coefficient – the percentage of potential customers in the total TAM for whom your product is a great fit.
  • Market Accessibility Coefficient – the percentage of that segment that you could actually reach, considering geography, regulatory restrictions, and other barriers.

Example:

  • Let's say your TAM is 100 million customers.
  • Your product is focused on small businesses, and you've found data that 40% of TAM are small businesses → Segmentation Coefficient = 0.4
  • You can sell it only in three countries, which make up 50% of this segment → Market Accessibility Coefficient = 0.5
  • SAM = 100 million × 0.4 × 0.5 = 20 million customers

SAM as Revenue

SAM_revenue = TAM_revenue × Segmentation Coefficient × Market Accessibility Coefficient = SAM_customers × ARPC

Where:

  • SAM_customers – calculated using SAM as Customer Count approach above.
  • ARPC – average revenue per customer. As mentioned in the TAM part, this should reflect your business model.


Continuing calculation from the previous example:

  • Your SAM in customer count = 20 million
  • Let's assume your average annual revenue per customer = $100 per year
  • Then SAM_revenue = 20 million × 100 = $2 billion annually

The major trick with SAM calculations is not to fall into the 'assumptions based on assumptions' trap. Ground your numbers in data, and if you do make assumptions, be ready to defend them.

SOM: Part of SAM That You Will Capture (Hopefully)

If SAM is the share you strategically plan to capture, then SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market) is the share you tactically expect to capture in the near term (1-3 years).

It's your expected market share, considering your sales & marketing strategy, budget (and luck).

Back to the fisherman example: TAM is the whole ocean, SAM is the part you can reach, and thus SOM is the actual fish you expect to catch, given fish behavior, weather, your team's skill, and competitor activity. This is a more tactical and down-to-earth estimate based on current conditions and your efforts.

Even with a substantial SAM, say $1 billion, a limited initial marketing budget and a focus on key regions will naturally constrain your SOM. For example, your SOM might be just $5 million in the first year, representing 0.5% of the SAM.

This can depend on a bunch of factors:

  • Marketing Strategy: What is the plan for customer acquisition? Paid ads, targeted engagement on Reddit, word-of-mouth?
  • Sales Efforts: How effectively will your team work with clients?
  • Budget: How much money do you have for promotion and product improvement?
  • Competition: How quickly will competitors react to your moves?
  • Demand: Will there be demand for your product in the current economy?
  • Product: Will your product consistently meet or exceed customer expectations in terms of features, reliability, and ease of use?
  • Price: Is your pricing model well aligned with your customers' willingness to pay and competitive pressures?
  • Support: How effectively will your support team keep customers happy?
  • Team Dynamics: How well will your team collaborate, communicate, and execute across different departments to achieve shared goals? Are those shared goals clearly defined?

You get the gist.

SOM is the slice of SAM you realistically expect to grab in the short term, and it's often revised based on how those factors play out.

And it's the trickiest one to estimate accurately.

SOM as Customer Count

SOM_customers = SAM_customers × Market Share Coefficient

Where:

  • SAM_customers – the customer base you can serve with your current capabilities.
  • Market Share Coefficient – the percentage of the market you expect to capture, based on your marketing and sales strategy, budget, and other factors.

Estimating realistic market share is hard.

The best way is to ground your projections in pilot launch data, conversion testing, historical performance, or established industry benchmarks. Do your best to avoid pure guesswork.

Would you believe me if I said I’ll capture 5% of the chatbot market? Just trust me, I have a big plan! Probably not.

But what if I showed you hard data from a statistically solid primary study and a pilot program, both proving that 1% of the target population is willing to switch to my product with ABC features for $X price within the next 3–6 months?

Or better - what if I told you that last year my market share was 1%, here are my operational metrics, here are my NPS scores, this year I expanded my team with experts in critical areas, and increased my marketing budget by 30%? Based on this, I project my market share to grow to 3% this year by expanding into new regions, improving customer retention, and increasing marketing efficiency. With the right funding next year, I plan to scale these efforts further and reach 5% market share.

That’s the difference between guessing a market share coefficient and backing it with data.

Now, for the sake of continuity, let’s go on with the calculation from the previous example:

  • Your SAM was 20 million customers.
  • You plan to capture 5% of the market in the first year (ambitious but realistic if backed with data).
  • Then SOM_customers = 20 million × 0.05 = 1 million customers

SOM as Revenue

SOM_revenue = SAM_revenue × Market Share Coefficient = SOM_customers × ARPC

Let’s finish the example calculation:

  • SOM in customer count = 1 million.
  • Average annual revenue per customer = $100 per year
  • Thus SOM_revenue = 1 million × 100 = $100 million annually

The hardest part of SOM calculation is estimating the market share you can realistically capture. To improve accuracy, factor in competition, run pilot launches, analyze results, and adapt accordingly.

Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up Approach

Top-Down and Bottom-Up are the two main ways to estimate TAM, SAM, and SOM.

Top-down market sizing: Filtering from macro. Bottom-up: Building from micro.

Top-Down

Macro to micro

The Top-Down approach starts with big-picture data and drills down to smaller segments using logical filters and assumptions.

How it Works:

    1. Find a Big Number: Grab a broad, relevant market statistic from a credible source (industry analyst reports from Gartner, Forrester, or other market research firms, or government data).
      Example: Total global spending on cloud infrastructure.
    1. Apply Filters: Narrow that number down based on factors relevant to your specific market or product.
      Example:
        1. Filter by industry: Include only spending from financial services.
        2. Filter by geography: Include only spending in North America.
        3. Filter by technology type: Include only spending on serverless computing within cloud infrastructure.
        4. Filter by customer size: Include only spending by enterprise clients
    1. Result: The remaining number is your estimated market size (often used for TAM or SAM).

Pros:

Quick: Fast to get a ballpark figure, especially for TAM.

Leverages Existing Data: Relies on established (though sometimes expensive) research.

Good for Context: Shows the overall landscape and your potential place within it.

Cons:

➖ Assumption Heavy: The quality depends entirely on the validity of your filters and the accuracy of the source data.

➖ Can be Generic: May not accurately reflect the nuances of your specific niche. Doesn’t account for your specific product's fit within the market.

➖ Risk of Overestimation: Easy to be too optimistic with filters.

Best For: Initial TAM estimates, high-level market context, impressing* potential stakeholders.

*Investors and other stakeholders may question such estimates unless you can prove they’re based on solid data or industry-specific insights. I was questioned. I would question. And I'm not even an investor 😉

Bottom-Up

Micro to macro

The Bottom-Up approach builds estimates from the ground up using internal data and smaller-scale research. This approach gives more realistic insights because it’s based on real-world factors like sales data or consumer behavior.

How it Works:

    1. Identify Customer Segments: Define your specific target customer profiles.
    2. Count Potential Customers: Estimate the number of potential customers in each segment you can realistically reach.
    3. Estimate Revenue per Customer: Determine the average revenue you expect from each customer segment (Average Revenue Per User - ARPU, Average Contract Value - ACV, etc.). This should be based on your pricing model and expected usage/purchase frequency.
    4. Multiply and Aggregate: Multiply the number of customers by the average revenue per customer for each segment, then sum across segments.
    5. Result: This gives you a market size estimate, typically best suited for calculating a realistic SOM and validating SAM.

Pros:

More Realistic & Defensible: Based on your specific product, pricing, target customers, and sales potential.

Actionable: Directly tied to your sales strategy and go-to-market plan. Helps set concrete targets.

Good for Niche Markets: Works well when broad industry data isn't available or relevant.

Cons:

➖ Data Intensive & Time Consuming: Requires significant effort to identify segments, count customers, and validate revenue assumptions.

➖ Risk of Underestimation: Easy to miss potential customer segments or underestimate market penetration potential.

Best For: Calculating a credible SOM and validating SAM.


Don't rely on just one. Use both approaches.

Top-Down sets the ceiling (the theoretical maximum).

Bottom-Up provides the floor and a reality check (what you can actually target and achieve).

If your Bottom-Up SOM/SAM looks tiny compared to your Top-Down TAM/SAM, you either have huge room to grow or your Top-Down assumptions are way off (or both). If they align reasonably well, your estimates gain credibility.

Additional Tips

Estimating TAM, SAM, and SOM isn’t easy. It involves tons of data, assumptions, and hypotheses.

Here's how to stay in control:

  1. Document your assumptions. Track the logic behind your segmentation and coefficients to ensure transparency and consistency.
  2. Cross-check data sources. Comparing insights from multiple sources helps reduce errors and build a more accurate picture.
  3. Validate with real data. Use pilot launches or surveys to test conversions and refine your SOM based on actual market response.
  4. Account for uncertainty. Build scenario analyses (optimistic, pessimistic, base case) to create flexible estimates that reflect real-world risks.

And please, don’t just say, 'Statista estimates the ABC market at $500 billion, and my product will capture 10% in year one because my ChatGPT wrapper is the best ever. Trust me!'

Sources

Whether you're going top-down or bottom-up, you’ll need data for your TAM, SAM, and SOM.

But where do you even start?

Forget just asking AI (it's great for brainstorming but not always spot-on with the facts). You’ll need to do some real digging.

Here's a breakdown of the best places to look, depending on what you're after.

I. Big-Picture Market Size (TAM)

Government Databases (Free!)
Raw data on all sorts of demographic & economic indicators:

💡 Google [country] national statistics agency to find the national statistics agency for a specific country.

Reports from Research Companies (mix of Free & Paid)
These provide market sizes, trends, and sometimes even customer spending insights:

💡 Use Google Advanced Search to specify your search queries.

II. Targeting Your Specific Market (SAM)

B2B (Finding the right companies)

  • LinkedIn Sales Navigator: Use advanced filters to find companies by industry, location, size, and job titles.
  • Crunchbase: Great for tracking startups.
  • National Business Registries: Most countries have a government agency that lists registered businesses.
  • Business Data Platforms (Paid): Apollo and ZoomInfo provide detailed company data.

B2C (Understanding your consumers)

  • Demographics (Who are they? Where do they live?): Government databases listed above, Statista, etc.
  • Consumer Spending (How much do they spend?): Reports from research companies, plus direct competitor reports.

III. What You Can Realistically Capture (SOM)

Market & Competitor Analysis

  • Reddit, Twitter, LinkedIn Groups: See what real people say about your industry.
  • Surveys (Survey Monkey, Qualtrics, Typeform): Ask potential customers directly.
  • Review Aggregators (G2, Capterra, TrustPilot, etc.): See who your competitors are and what customers are saying about them.
  • Company Reports (SEC 10-K filings, investor calls): If your competitors are public companies, you can find a lot of information in their financial reports.

Trend Spotting & User Interest

IV. Estimating ARPU (How Much Do People Pay?)

  • Competitor Financial Reports: Public companies may report ARPU (Average Revenue Per User).
  • Subscription & Payment Platforms: Google Play, Apple App Store, Stripe, PayPal, Shopify may share industry trends.
  • Surveys & Direct Consumer Data: Reddit, Twitter, and Quora can offer insights from real users.

This list gives you a starting point.

You won't use every source for every analysis. The key is to be resourceful and to combine different sources to get the most accurate picture possible.

Estimating From Limited Data

You'll always miss some information.

That's a fact.

So, work with what you have and estimate the rest.

For example, if you know how many companies there are in a specific region, you can estimate the global number. If the U.S. had 500K companies in your industry and accounted for 30% of the global market, then the total worldwide would be 500K ÷ 0.3 ≈ 1.67M companies.

Similarly, if you couldn't find any benchmarks for ARPU in your industry but a major competitor reported $400M in annual revenue from 2M users, you could estimate ARPU as $400M ÷ 2M = $200.

Just be able to explain where your numbers come from, and don’t make them up.

Using AI for TAM, SAM, SOM Analysis

An unpopular opinion:

Generative AI won't give you accurate numbers.

To write a perfectly accurate prompt for estimating TAM, SAM, and SOM, you need:

  • A strong understanding of your market
  • A well-defined business model for your product
  • A significant amount of time dedicated to writing and refining the prompt itself.

Even then, you'll still end up with numbers you can't be 100% certain about unless you manually verify them later. And that, again, takes time.

On the other hand, Agentic AI soon enough will likely be able to independently decide which sources you need, access websites like the U.S. Census Bureau on its own, filter the necessary data, download needed datasets, autonomously analyze them, supplement the result with data found in reports from research firms (which that AI agent will be able to download from their websites)... and give us some reliable number. But how reliable? And how many of us will truly have access to these agents? That's a whole other story.

But what Gen AI can help with is sharing mock examples, guiding you, and pointing to the right sources when you're trying to figure out your TAM, SAM, and SOM.

Here's a prompt to get you started. I brainstormed it with Gemini 2.5, so feel free to use/improve/share it if needed.

It's designed to focus on methodologies and sources that could be used.

Prompt Template

How to use:

  1. Replace ALL bracketed placeholders [ ] with your specific product and business details. Be as detailed and accurate as possible. The more specific you are, the better the AI's estimate will be (though it will still be an estimate).
  2. Paste the completed prompt into your chat session with ChatGPT, Gemini, or another.
  3. Review the output critically: Any GPT provides estimates based on its training data and your input. It's a great starting point but not a substitute for deep, primary market research. Use the output to refine your thinking and guide further investigation.
  4. Iterate: If the initial results seem off or lack detail, ask follow-up questions, provide more context, or ask it to refine its calculations based on different assumptions.

Template:

Act as an experienced Market Research Analyst specializing in market sizing.

Your Objective: Estimate the Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for the specific product/service detailed below. Provide quantitative estimates (e.g., in currency, number of users, number of units) and explain your reasoning and methodology for each calculation.

Use the following information I provide about my product/service:

1. Product/Service Description:

[Clearly describe your product or service. What is it? What core problem does it solve? What are its key features and benefits? Is it software, hardware, a service, a platform, etc.?]

[Example: "A SaaS platform using AI to automate invoice processing and reconciliation for small-to-medium businesses (SMBs) in the construction industry."]

  1. Target Audience & Customer Profile:

[Describe your ideal customer(s) in detail. Include demographics (age, location - if applicable), firmographics (company size, industry, revenue - for B2B), psychographics (needs, pain points, buying behavior), job titles (for B2B), technical sophistication, etc.]

[Example: "US-based construction SMBs with 10-100 employees, annual revenue $2M-$50M, primarily using basic accounting software like QuickBooks or spreadsheets, experiencing pain points around manual data entry errors and slow payment cycles. Key decision-maker is often the Owner, CFO, or Office Manager."]

  1. Geographic Scope:

[Define the geographical market(s) you are initially targeting and potentially plan to expand into. Be specific (e.g., "Initially targeting the United States," "Focusing on London, UK," "Global English-speaking market").]

[Example: "Initial focus on the United States market, with potential expansion to Canada and the UK within 3 years."]

  1. Business Model & Pricing:

[Explain how you make money. Is it a subscription (monthly/annual?), one-time purchase, freemium, usage-based, commission, etc.? Provide an estimated Average Revenue Per User/Customer (ARPU/ACV) or price point.]

[Example: "Tiered monthly subscription model based on invoice volume. Average ACV (Annual Contract Value) estimated at $2,400 per SMB customer."] 

  1. Competitive Landscape:

[Briefly list your main direct and indirect competitors. What distinguishes your offering (Unique Selling Proposition - USP)? Do you have any rough estimates of existing market share distribution, if known? ]

[Example: "Direct competitors include Bill.com, Melio, and manual processing/basic accounting software add-ons. Our USP is the AI-powered accuracy specifically trained on construction industry invoice formats and superior integration with construction project management software. Market is fragmented."] 

  1. Sales & Marketing Strategy (Brief Overview):

[How do you plan to reach your customers? (e.g., Direct sales team, online marketing, channel partners, content marketing). This helps inform the SOM calculation regarding realistic reach.]

[Example: "Primarily through targeted online advertising (LinkedIn, Google Ads), content marketing focused on construction finance efficiency, and partnerships with construction software providers."] 

  1. Existing Data (Optional but Recommended):

[If you have any existing market research data, industry reports, number of potential leads identified, current customer count, or relevant statistics, include them here. e.g., "Industry report X states the US construction SMB market size is Y," "We have identified 50,000 potential leads matching our criteria."] 


Your Task & Output Requirements:

Based strictly on the information provided above, your general knowledge base, and search capabilites:

  1. Define & Calculate TAM:
  • Provide the standard definition of TAM.
  • Estimate the TAM (e.g., total global/regional spending on solutions addressing this problem category, or total number of potential customers worldwide/regionally who face this problem). Specify the unit (e.g., $, # of companies, # of users).
  • Explain your calculation methodology (e.g., top-down approach using industry reports, bottom-up approach counting potential users/companies). State key assumptions.
  1. Define & Calculate SAM:
  • Provide the standard definition of SAM.
  • Estimate the SAM (e.g., the portion of TAM that fits your specific product offering, target customer profile, and defined geographic scope). Specify the unit.
  • Explain your calculation methodology and how it narrows down from the TAM. State key assumptions (e.g., filtering TAM by specific industry, company size, geography).
  1. Define & Calculate SOM:
  • Provide the standard definition of SOM.
  • Estimate the SOM (e.g., the portion of SAM we can realistically capture in the short-to-medium term (e.g., next 1-3 years), considering our resources, sales/marketing strategy, competition, and realistic market penetration). Specify the unit.
  • Explain your calculation methodology (e.g., applying a realistic capture rate to SAM based on factors provided, using competitor benchmarks if applicable). State key assumptions about market penetration rate, sales efficiency, and competitive pressure.
  1. Methodology Summary:
  • Briefly summarize the overall approach used (e.g., primarily top-down, bottom-up, comparable analysis).
  1. Assumptions & Limitations:
  • Clearly list the key assumptions made for each calculation and acknowledge the limitations of this estimation (e.g., reliance on publicly available data, estimations based on provided inputs).
  1. Potential Data Sources:
  • Mention the types of data sources one would typically use for such an analysis to validate your response (e.g., Census data, industry reports from Gartner/Forrester/IBISWorld, government economic statistics, competitor filings, surveys).

Present the results clearly, separating TAM, SAM, and SOM with their respective definitions, estimates, and explanations. If any provided information is unclear or insufficient for a reasonable estimate, state what additional information would be helpful.

Let's see what we can expect from it.

Here's the actual prompt I used:

Prompt Used

Act as an experienced Market Research Analyst specializing in market sizing.
Your Objective: Estimate the Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for the specific product/service detailed below. Provide quantitative estimates (e.g., in currency, number of users, number of units) and explain your reasoning and methodology for each calculation.

Please use the following information I provide about my product/service:

  1. Product/Service Description:
    • A SaaS platform using AI to automate invoice processing and reconciliation for small-to-medium businesses (SMBs) in the construction industry.
  2. Target Audience & Customer Profile:
    • US-based construction SMBs with 10-100 employees, annual revenue $2M-$50M, primarily using basic accounting software like QuickBooks or spreadsheets, experiencing pain points around manual data entry errors and slow payment cycles. Key decision-maker is often the Owner, CFO, or Office Manager.
  3. Geographic Scope:
    • Initial focus on the United States market, with potential expansion to Canada and the UK within 3 years.
  4. Business Model & Pricing:
    • Tiered monthly subscription model based on invoice volume. Average ACV (Annual Contract Value) estimated at $2,400 per SMB customer.
  5. Competitive Landscape:
    • Direct competitors include Bill.com, Melio, and manual processing/basic accounting software add-ons. Our USP is the AI-powered accuracy specifically trained on construction industry invoice formats and superior integration with construction project management software. Market is fragmented.
  6. Sales & Marketing Strategy (Brief Overview):
    • Primarily through targeted online advertising (LinkedIn, Google Ads), content marketing focused on construction finance efficiency, and partnerships with construction software providers.
  7. Existing Data (Optional but Recommended):
    • N\A

Your Task & Output Requirements:
Based strictly on the information provided above, your general knowledge base, and search capabilities:

  1. Define & Calculate TAM:
    • Provide the standard definition of TAM.
    • Estimate the TAM (e.g., total global/regional spending on solutions addressing this problem category, or total number of potential customers worldwide/regionally who face this problem). Specify the unit (e.g., $, # of companies, # of users).
    • Explain your calculation methodology (e.g., top-down approach using industry reports, bottom-up approach counting potential users/companies). State key assumptions.
  2. Define & Calculate SAM:
    • Provide the standard definition of SAM.
    • Estimate the SAM (e.g., the portion of TAM that fits your specific product offering, target customer profile, and defined geographic scope). Specify the unit.
    • Explain your calculation methodology and how it narrows down from the TAM. State key assumptions (e.g., filtering TAM by specific industry, company size, geography).
  3. Define & Calculate SOM:
    • Provide the standard definition of SOM.
    • Estimate the SOM (e.g., the portion of SAM we can realistically capture in the short-to-medium term (e.g., next 1-3 years), considering our resources, sales/marketing strategy, competition, and realistic market penetration). Specify the unit.
    • Explain your calculation methodology (e.g., applying a realistic capture rate to SAM based on factors provided, using competitor benchmarks if applicable). State key assumptions about market penetration rate, sales efficiency, and competitive pressure.
  4. Methodology Summary: Briefly summarize the overall approach used (e.g., primarily top-down, bottom-up, comparable analysis).
  5. Assumptions & Limitations: Clearly list the key assumptions made for each calculation and acknowledge the limitations of this estimation (e.g., reliance on publicly available data, estimations based on provided inputs).
  6. Potential Data Sources: Mention the types of data sources one would typically use for such an analysis to validate your response (e.g., Census data, industry reports from Gartner/Forrester/IBISWorld, government economic statistics, competitor filings, surveys).

Please present the results clearly, separating TAM, SAM, and SOM with their respective definitions, estimates, and explanations. If any provided information is unclear or insufficient for a reasonable estimate, please state what additional information would be helpful.

Here are the outputs from ChatGPT (4/1/2025, Search and Reason activated).

ChatGPT Response 1

Below is an example of how one might structure the market sizing analysis for your AI-powered invoice automation platform. The figures below are illustrative estimates based on a mix of top‐down and bottom‐up reasoning. In a real project, you’d validate these numbers with detailed data (e.g., from Census Bureau data, industry reports, and proprietary surveys).

1. Total Addressable Market (TAM)

Definition: TAM represents the total revenue opportunity if 100% of the global market (or the full set of potential customers) adopted your solution.

Estimation & Calculation:

  • Scope: Global market for construction SMBs that experience manual invoice processing issues.
  • Assumptions:
    • In the US, we estimate ~20,000 construction SMBs meet the criteria (10–100 employees, $2M–$50M in revenue).
    • For initial global potential, include Canada (~5,000) and the UK (~8,000), yielding approximately 33,000 companies.
    • With an average annual contract value (ACV) of $2,400, the TAM in revenue terms would be:
      • TAM = 33,000 companies × $2,400 ≈ $79 million per year.

Methodology: This bottom-up approach multiplies the estimated number of companies (sourced from industry size approximations) by your ACV. Key assumptions include the estimated counts of companies in each geography and that each meets the basic need for automated invoice processing.

2. Serviceable Available Market (SAM)

Definition: SAM is the segment of the TAM that fits your product’s features, target customer profile, and defined geographic focus.

Estimation & Calculation:

  • Scope: Initially, your product will serve the US market only.
  • Assumptions:
    • Focusing solely on US-based construction SMBs, estimated at ~20,000 companies.
    • The revenue opportunity:
      • SAM = 20,000 companies × $2,400 ≈ $48 million per year.

Methodology: We narrow the TAM by excluding companies outside the US. The assumption is that only US-based businesses will be targeted in the near term due to geographic rollout limitations and localization requirements.

3. Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM)

Definition: SOM is the share of SAM that you can realistically capture in the next 1–3 years, considering competitive dynamics, your sales & marketing strategy, and resource constraints.

Estimation & Calculation:

  • Assumptions:
    • Given competitive pressures (with players like Bill.com and Melio) and a relatively fragmented market, a realistic capture rate in the short-to-medium term might be around 10% of SAM.
    • SOM = 10% of 20,000 companies = 2,000 companies.
    • The corresponding revenue opportunity would be:
      • SOM Revenue ≈ 2,000 companies × $2,400 = ~$4.8 million per year.

Methodology: This estimate applies a market penetration rate (10%) to the SAM. The rate is chosen based on typical early market capture benchmarks in competitive SaaS sectors.

4. Methodology Summary

  • Approach:
    • Bottom-Up Estimation: Starting with estimates of the number of potential companies, then multiplying by your product’s ACV.
    • Geographic & Segment Filtering: Adjusting figures based on your targeted customer profile (construction SMBs with specific revenue/employee ranges) and initial US focus.
    • Realistic Capture Estimation: Applying a conservative market penetration rate (10%) to derive SOM.

5. Assumptions & Limitations

  • Key Assumptions:
    • Estimated counts of construction SMBs are based on industry approximations and may require validation with specific data (e.g., from the U.S. Census Bureau, IBISWorld reports).
    • The ACV of $2,400 per customer is assumed uniform across the target segment.
    • A 10% penetration rate for SOM is an assumption reflecting competitive dynamics and early sales limitations.
  • Limitations:
    • Reliance on broad market estimates rather than granular data.
    • Variability in company size and spending may shift actual numbers.
    • Economic fluctuations and industry-specific trends could affect market dynamics.

6. Potential Data Sources

  • Government & Census Data: U.S. Census Bureau, Statistics Canada, and UK Office for National Statistics for firm counts and size distributions.
  • Industry Reports: IBISWorld, Gartner, and Forrester for insights on market segmentation and technology adoption.
  • Competitor Analysis: Public filings and market research on companies like Bill.com and Melio.
  • Surveys & Databases: Industry surveys and commercial databases that profile construction firms by revenue and employee size.

ChatGPT Response 2

Below is an estimation framework for your AI‐powered invoice automation solution targeting US construction SMBs. The numbers are derived using a bottom‐up approach based on estimated company counts and your pricing model.

1. Total Addressable Market (TAM)

Definition: TAM is the total annual revenue opportunity available if your solution captured 100% of all potential customers facing the problem.

Estimate:

  • Assumption: There are roughly 745,000 construction companies in the US. Research suggests that almost 70% are very small (e.g. <5 employees). By conservatively estimating that about 10% of all construction firms fall into the 10–100 employee category—and meet the revenue range of $2M–$50M—we estimate roughly 75,000 target companies.
  • Calculation: TAM=75,000 companies×$2,400 (annual contract value)=$180 million per year.

Methodology: A bottom‐up approach was applied by first identifying the overall number of US construction businesses (using Census and industry data), then estimating the proportion with 10–100 employees and within the revenue range. Multiplying by your average ACV gives the TAM.

2. Serviceable Available Market (SAM)

Definition: SAM is the portion of TAM that fits your product’s specific features, the target customer profile (those using basic accounting systems like QuickBooks or spreadsheets with manual pain points), and the defined geographic region (US).

Estimate:

  • Assumption: Among the 75,000 companies, assume that about 60% have the outdated, manual processes your solution would most improve. That narrows the market to roughly 45,000 companies.
  • Calculation: SAM=45,000 companies×$2,400=$108 million per year.

Methodology: This step filters TAM by adoption readiness. Here, we assume that only a subset of companies use basic accounting systems and face significant manual pain points—making them ideal candidates for an AI upgrade.

3. Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM)

Definition: SOM is the share of the SAM that you can realistically capture in the next 1–3 years, accounting for competition, market penetration challenges, and your current resources.

Estimate:

  • Assumption: Given competitive pressures and typical early market penetration for niche SaaS solutions, a 10% capture of the SAM is a realistic target.
  • Calculation: SOM=10%×$108 million=$10.8 million per year.

Methodology: We apply a conservative capture rate (10%) to the SAM to reflect realistic sales, marketing effectiveness, and competitive dynamics in the early years of product rollout.

Methodology Summary

  • Approach: A bottom‐up estimation was performed by:
    • Estimating the total number of US construction firms and filtering for the target size (10–100 employees).
    • Multiplying the resulting company count by your average annual contract value to determine TAM.
    • Narrowing TAM to those with outdated manual systems to arrive at SAM.
    • Finally, applying a realistic market penetration rate (10%) to estimate SOM.
  • Key Assumptions:
    • Total construction companies in the US: ~745,000
    • Target segment (10–100 employees, $2M–$50M revenue): ~75,000 companies
    • Adoption subset (companies with significant manual pain points): ~60% of target (~45,000 companies)
    • Average ACV: $2,400 per year
    • Realistic early market penetration: 10% of SAM
  • Limitations:
    • The company counts and percentages are rough estimates based on available industry and Census data.
    • Variations in revenue levels and current technology adoption could affect the true market size.
    • Competitive dynamics and customer readiness for change may alter the achievable penetration rate.
  • Potential Data Sources for Validation:
    • U.S. Census Bureau’s Statistics of U.S. Businesses
    • SBA reports and industry studies (e.g., IBISWorld, Gartner)
    • Market surveys and competitor analysis in the construction technology and finance automation space

What can we conclude? The numbers vary widely, which is expected since both responses were presented as either 'an example' or 'an estimation framework.'

Market Segment Response 1 Response 2 Difference
TAM $79M (33,000 companies) $180M (75,000 companies) +$101M (+42,000 companies)
SAM $48M (20,000 companies) $108M (45,000 companies) +$60M (+25,000 companies)
SOM $4.8M (2,000 companies) $10.8M (4,500 companies) +$6M (+2,500 companies)

However, the approach to calculating TAM, SAM, and SOM remains essentially the same in both cases. Thus, we could rely on the approach rather than the specific numbers.

Potential data sources are also similar enough. In my humble opinion, they are the most valuable takeaway from conversations with ChatGPT.

Potential Sources from Response 1

  • Government & Census Data: U.S. Census Bureau, Statistics Canada, and UK Office for National Statistics for firm counts and size distributions.
  • Industry Reports: IBISWorld, Gartner, and Forrester for insights on market segmentation and technology adoption.
  • Competitor Analysis: Public filings and market research on companies like Bill.com and Melio.
  • Surveys & Databases: Industry surveys and commercial databases that profile construction firms by revenue and employee size.

Potential Sources from Response 2

  • U.S. Census Bureau’s Statistics of U.S. Businesses
  • SBA reports and industry studies (e.g., IBISWorld, Gartner)
  • Market surveys and competitor analysis in the construction technology and finance automation space

Here is the output from Gemini 2.5 (4/1/2025, Grounding with Google Search activated).

Gemini 2.5 Response

Okay, acting as an experienced Market Research Analyst, here is an estimation of the Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for your AI-powered invoice automation SaaS platform targeting US construction SMBs.

First, I need to gather some relevant data points using search.Based on the information provided and publicly available data, here is the market sizing estimation for your AI-powered invoice automation SaaS:

1. Total Addressable Market (TAM)[1][2][3][4][5]

  • Definition: TAM represents the total market demand for a product category or the entire revenue opportunity available for a specific product or service if 100% market share were achieved.[3][4] It signifies the broadest potential scope of the market.
  • Estimate:
    • Method 1 (Market Value Focus): The US Accounts Payable (AP) Automation market was valued at approximately USD $3.85 Billion in 2023 and is projected to grow significantly.[6] Some sources estimate the North American market specifically was around USD $1 Billion in 2023, projected to grow at a CAGR of ~12%. Let's use a rounded figure based on these reports for the relevant US segment: approx. USD $4 Billion annually.
    • Method 2 (Number of Businesses Focus): There are over 30 million businesses in the US, with roughly 6 million being employer firms.[7] A very broad TAM could consider all businesses that process invoices.
  • Methodology (Market Value Focus): This estimate uses a top-down approach, leveraging market research reports on the Accounts Payable (AP) Automation market size in the US or North America.[5] This represents the total spending on solutions designed to automate invoice processing across all industries and company sizes within the region.
  • Key Assumptions:
    • The AP Automation market size is a reasonable proxy for the total demand for solutions like yours, encompassing various providers and approaches (including software, services, etc.).
    • Market reports accurately reflect the overall spending in this category.[5]

2. Serviceable Available Market (SAM)[2][4]

  • Definition: SAM is the segment of the TAM that your specific product or service can realistically target, considering your product focus, business model, and geographic scope.[5]
  • Estimate:
    • Number of Companies: There are approximately 750,000 - 900,000 construction firms in the US.[5] Filtering for SMBs specifically within the 10-100 employee range is challenging with publicly available data, as it's often aggregated differently (e.g., <5, 5-9, 10-19, 20-49, 50-99).[5] Using available breakdowns (e.g., BLS, NAICS Association data), we can estimate the number of firms in the 10-19, 20-49, and 50-99 employee buckets for the construction sector.[5] A rough estimate suggests there could be approximately 120,000 - 160,000 US construction firms in the 10-100 employee range. Let's use a midpoint estimate of 140,000 companies.
    • Market Value: Based on the estimated number of target companies and your average ACV: 140,000 companies * $2,400 ACV = USD $336 Million annually.
  • Methodology: This uses a bottom-up refinement approach.[8] We start with the total number of US construction firms and filter based on the specified employee size (10-100).[5] We then multiply this number by the estimated Average Annual Contract Value (ACV) to arrive at the market value for this specific segment.
  • Key Assumptions:
    • Publicly available data on the number of construction firms by employee size brackets provides a reasonable basis for estimation.[5]
    • The 10-100 employee size range is a good proxy for the 2M−50M annual revenue target, although these may not perfectly align for every company.
    • The estimated average ACV of $2,400 is representative of what this target segment would pay.
    • These target companies are the ones serviceable by your current SaaS offering within the US.[5]

3. Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM)[1][2][3][4][5][8]

  • Definition: SOM is the portion of the SAM that your business can realistically capture within a specific timeframe (e.g., the first 1-3 years), considering your current resources, go-to-market strategy, competitive landscape, and realistic market penetration potential.
  • Estimate:
    • Number of Companies: A realistic initial market penetration goal for a new SaaS product in a competitive, fragmented market over 1-3 years might be between 1% and 3% of the SAM. Applying a 2% penetration rate: 2% of 140,000 companies = 2,800 companies.
    • Market Value: 2,800 companies * $2,400 ACV = USD $6.72 Million annually. (Alternatively: 2% of $336 Million SAM = $6.72 Million).[5]
  • Methodology: This estimate applies a realistic market capture rate to the calculated SAM. The capture rate is based on factors like being a relatively new entrant, the specific niche focus (AI for construction invoices), the effectiveness of the outlined sales/marketing strategy (online ads, content, partnerships), and existing competition (Bill.com, Melio, manual methods).[5]
  • Key Assumptions:
    • A 2% market penetration of the SAM is achievable within the initial 1-3 year timeframe given your resources and strategy.
    • The sales and marketing strategies will be effective enough to reach and convert this portion of the SAM.
    • Competitive pressures allow for this level of market share capture.
    • The $2,400 ACV holds true for the customers captured.

4. Methodology Summary

The overall approach combines:

  • Top-Down Analysis: For TAM, using overall market reports for AP Automation.
  • Bottom-Up Refinement: For SAM, identifying the specific number of target companies based on industry and size criteria within the geographic scope.[5]
  • Realistic Projection: For SOM, applying an estimated achievable market penetration rate to the SAM based on internal capabilities and external market factors.

5. Assumptions & Limitations

  • Key Assumptions:
    • Accuracy of public data sources for company counts and market sizes.
    • Correlation between employee size (10-100) and revenue (2M−50M) for target construction SMBs.
    • Stability of the $2,400 ACV.
    • Achievability of the 2% market penetration rate for SOM within 1-3 years.
    • The definition of "construction SMB" aligns well with standard industry classifications (e.g., NAICS codes for construction).
  • Limitations:
    • Estimates rely heavily on publicly available data, which may lack granularity (especially for combined employee and revenue segmentation) or be slightly outdated.[5] Paid industry reports would offer more precision.
    • The actual number of SMBs experiencing the specific pain points and willing to adopt an AI SaaS solution might be smaller than the total number fitting the demographic profile.[5]
    • The $2,400 ACV is an estimate; actual ACV could vary.
    • Market dynamics, competitive responses, and execution effectiveness can significantly impact the actual obtainable market (SOM).[5]
    • This analysis doesn't account for potential market expansion into Canada/UK within 3 years, focusing only on the initial US market.

6. Potential Data Sources for Validation

To refine these estimates, one would typically consult sources such as:

  • Government Statistics: U.S. Census Bureau (Statistics of US Businesses - SUSB, County Business Patterns - CBP), Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW).[5]
  • Industry Reports: Market research firms like Gartner, Forrester, IBISWorld, Grand View Research, Verified Market Research publish reports on AP Automation, Construction Industry trends, and SaaS markets.[5]
  • Company Databases: Commercial databases (e.g., ZoomInfo, Apollo.io, possibly filtered NAICS/SIC data providers) can provide more granular company lists, though often require subscription fees.[5]
  • Competitor Analysis: Public filings (if competitors are public), press releases, pricing pages, and case studies of competitors like Bill.com or Melio.[5]
  • Industry Associations: Groups like the Associated General Contractors (AGC) of America often publish industry statistics.[5]
  • Primary Research: Surveys or interviews with target construction SMBs to validate pain points, software usage, and willingness to pay.

This analysis provides a foundational estimate based on the provided details and accessible data. Further refinement would require access to more detailed, potentially proprietary data sources and ongoing market monitoring.

Search Sources

  1. hubspot.com
  2. seerinteractive.com
  3. amazon.com
  4. masterclass.com
  5. constructioncoverage.com
  6. verifiedmarketresearch.com
  7. hourly.io
  8. foundationinc.co

Is it more thorough than both responses from ChatGPT? Yes.

Would I take it as is and present it to anyone, pretending these are the real numbers? Absolutely not.

Again, the most valuable part is the potential data sources, and they align closely with the ones provided by ChatGPT.

Potential Sources from Gemini's response

  • Government Statistics: U.S. Census Bureau (Statistics of US Businesses - SUSB, County Business Patterns - CBP), Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW).
  • Industry Reports: Market research firms like Gartner, Forrester, IBISWorld, Grand View Research, Verified Market Research publish reports on AP Automation, Construction Industry trends, and SaaS markets.
  • Company Databases: Commercial databases (e.g., ZoomInfo, Apollo.io, possibly filtered NAICS/SIC data providers) can provide more granular company lists, though often require subscription fees.
  • Competitor Analysis: Public filings (if competitors are public), press releases, pricing pages, and case studies of competitors like Bill.com or Melio.
  • Industry Associations: Groups like the Associated General Contractors (AGC) of America often publish industry statistics.
  • Primary Research: Surveys or interviews with target construction SMBs to validate pain points, software usage, and willingness to pay.

To sum up, don't blindly trust the numbers AI chatbots provide, but leverage the methodologies and resources they suggest.

Final Thoughts

Tackling TAM, SAM, and SOM is often a messy, iterative process – and that's okay.

As we've seen, perfect numbers are elusive, but well-reasoned, data-backed estimates are invaluable. Don't get lost chasing unrealistic perfection. Focus on building a logical case, documenting your assumptions, and using these insights to navigate your path forward.

Hopefully, this guide helps you do just that.

P.S. I'd like to hear your thoughts! How do you approach market sizing calculations? Top-down, bottom-up? What works? What doesn't?


Disclaimers:

This blog is all about sharing insights and ideas. While I do my best to provide accurate information, I’m not offering legal or financial advice. If you need expert guidance, please reach out to a qualified professional.

I am not affiliated with any of the tools mentioned in this post, and none of the links are referral links. My recommendations are based solely on their relevance, usefulness, and my personal experience using them.